Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated in an interview conducted on September 16, 2026, that energy prices have continued to rise, surpassing initial forecasts published less than a week earlier.
This prolonged increase is altering financial market expectations, which now incorporate an interest rate trajectory primarily influenced by energy price developments. Contrary to earlier anticipations of easing tensions in the Middle East and falling prices, the new baseline assumes that these prices will remain elevated for a longer period.
The Vice-President emphasized that the ECB does not provide forward guidance and makes monetary policy decisions on a case-by-case basis, meeting by meeting, considering a broad range of data rather than focusing solely on energy prices.
He also warned against markets becoming overly fixated on energy prices, reminding that high inflation can affect household purchasing power and behavior, which will impact economic growth.
Regarding risks related to natural gas, Vujčić noted that although storage levels are relatively low ahead of winter, gas is now a less critical factor in electricity price formation than before. He distinguished the immediate impact of oil on inflation through fuel prices from the more persistent effect of gas on household bills and production costs.
Finally, he recalled that the ECB will respond to incoming economic data and geopolitical developments, which remain a major source of uncertainty.