The Pacific is sending a warning to the entire planet. On September 3, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that El Niño, now firmly established, is expected to gain strength in the coming months. The UN specialized agency estimates the probability of the phenomenon persisting until February 2027 at nearly 100%. This exceptionally categorical statement places governments, farmers, insurers, energy producers, and emergency services in a position of significant uncertainty for the coming months.
The alert does not mean that a specific disaster will strike every country. El Niño alters major atmospheric balances and shifts probabilities: more heat in many regions, excessive rainfall in some, droughts in others. Its effects also depend on the seasons and local realities. However, when the phenomenon reaches a very high intensity in an already warmed world, the risk of simultaneous shocks increases significantly.
A Probability Close to 100%, Unprecedented in This Bulletin
According to the WMO’s August 2026 Info Niño/Niña bulletin, global forecasting centers are almost entirely in agreement: El Niño is expected to persist during the September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027 periods. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that this is the first time the organization has expressed such a high degree of certainty in this type of update.
The surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific explain this confidence. The Niño 3.4 index, one of the main indicators monitored by climatologists, showed an average warming of 1.5 °C between May and July compared to normal, then 2 °C in July. Between late July and mid-August, some measurements reached 2.2 to 2.6 °C above average. The ocean thus provides a considerable reservoir of energy to the atmosphere.
Why El Niño Can Disrupt Weather Far from the Pacific
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle called ENSO, which alternates with La Niña and neutral periods. The abnormal warming of a vast area of the tropical Pacific weakens or shifts the prevailing winds. This disruption then modifies the jet streams and atmospheric circulation, with consequences that propagate thousands of kilometers away.
In some regions of South America and the southern United States, El Niño can lead to heavier rainfall and flooding. In Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Asia and southern Africa, it can conversely increase the risk of drought or heat. These relationships never function like an automatic map: the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean, and other climatic oscillations can reinforce, shift, or dampen the signal.
Heat, Floods, Droughts: Risks Rise Until 2027
For September to November 2026, the WMO’s multimodel forecasts indicate an increased probability of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas. Rainfall patterns are also expected to show a marked atmospheric response, characteristic of a strong El Niño. The phenomenon is expected to peak around the end of 2026, while its consequences may extend well beyond its oceanic peak.
Caution remains essential: a seasonal forecast describes average trends, not the weather on a specific day in a city. However, it can help prepare electrical grids for consumption peaks, secure water reserves, adapt planting schedules, anticipate health risks related to heat, and pre-position aid in areas exposed to flooding or fires.
Agriculture and Food Prices on the Front Line
Previous powerful episodes have shown how much El Niño can impact the real economy. A prolonged drought can reduce harvests of grains, coffee, cocoa, sugar, or palm oil. Extreme rainfall can destroy infrastructure, disrupt transport, and degrade soils. When several major production basins experience anomalies simultaneously, the effects transmit to global prices and then to the prices paid by consumers.
However, markets do not react solely to the word âEl Niño.â Stocks, export decisions, exchange rates, energy costs, and conflicts also play significant roles. The WMO’s announcement primarily serves as a risk management signal. Companies dependent on agricultural, maritime, or energy supply chains now have an additional reason to test their continuity scenarios.
What France and Europe Really Need to Monitor
In Western Europe, the link between El Niño and local weather is less direct and less stable than in the Pacific or certain tropical areas. Therefore, it would be misleading to announce a specific winter in France at this time. The forecasts from Météo-France and European services, updated over the weeks, will remain the references for assessing regional probabilities of temperature and precipitation.
Nevertheless, France is exposed through several indirect channels. A powerful global episode can affect the prices of imported goods, disrupt maritime transport, increase humanitarian needs, and heighten volatility in energy markets. The French overseas territories located in tropical basins may also face more pronounced signals, varying according to their position and the season.
A Natural Phenomenon on an Already Warmer Planet
El Niño is not created by climate change; it has existed naturally for centuries. However, it is now unfolding at a much higher baseline level, fueled by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The Associated Press recently reported the results of a study suggesting that El Niño episodes have intensified since the pre-industrial era. This research fuels the scientific debate on how warming modifies the intensity and impacts of the ENSO cycle.
It is crucial to distinguish between the two mechanisms. Climate warming permanently raises the average temperature and intensifies many extremes. El Niño temporarily adds heat at the surface and reorganizes global weather. Their combination can thus lead to new records, without each heatwave, storm, or flood being attributable to the phenomenon in isolation.
The Real Challenge: Turning Alert into Preparation
The WMO is working with national meteorological services, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to accelerate preparedness. The goal is clear: to convert a global forecast into local decisions, from agricultural calendars to evacuation plans and public health messages.
The next five months will be decisive. Ocean indicators will reveal how high El Niño can rise, while atmospheric observations will show where its effects concentrate. The figure close to 100% does not guarantee a single scenario, but it removes much of the doubt about the phenomenon’s persistence. The world now knows it must contend with a very powerful El Niño at least until early 2027. The question is no longer just about forecasting; it is about who is preparing fast enough.