Paraguay Becomes Fiscal and Political Haven for Bolsonaro Supporters

In 2025, Paraguay recorded a record number of residence permits issued to foreigners, with 40,600 documents granted. This significant increase is notably explained by the massive arrival of Brazilians, mostly supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro. This phenomenon reflects a migratory dynamic motivated by political and economic factors related to the situation in Brazil. Paraguay, a South American country historically discreet on the international stage, is thus positioning itself as a fiscal and political refuge for a portion of the Brazilian population.

An unprecedented migratory influx to Paraguay

In 2025, Paraguay crossed an unprecedented threshold in terms of immigration, with the issuance of 40,600 residence permits to foreign nationals. This figure constitutes a record for this country of about 7 million inhabitants, traditionally less attractive than its neighbors such as Brazil or Argentina. More than half of these permits were granted to Brazilians, highlighting a marked migratory trend between these two neighboring nations.

This massive migration is mainly composed of supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, former Brazilian president whose term ended in 2022. According to France 24, this community sees Paraguay as a haven of stability and security, both politically and economically. The country offers advantageous fiscal conditions, making it a preferred destination for those seeking to escape certain pressures in Brazil.

The reasons for a political and economic migration

Several factors explain this exodus of Bolsonaro supporters to Paraguay. First, the fear of a victory by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, in the Brazilian presidential elections of October 2026. Lula, an emblematic figure of the Brazilian left, is perceived by Bolsonaro’s supporters as a political adversary whose return to power could lead to measures contrary to their interests.

Moreover, the persistent economic crisis that Brazil is experiencing plays a decisive role. This situation is often attributed by Bolsonaro supporters to Lula’s management, which they consider responsible for a deterioration of economic conditions. Faced with soaring inflation, high unemployment, and social instability, Paraguay appears as a more attractive alternative, notably thanks to its favorable tax regime and generally lower cost of living.

Paraguay, a fiscal and political refuge

Paraguay’s positioning as a fiscal and political refuge for Bolsonaro supporters fits into a broader regional context. The country indeed offers notable fiscal advantages, including relatively low income and corporate taxes compared to its neighbors, as well as legislation favorable to foreign investors. These characteristics attract not only individuals but also companies and capital.

Politically, Paraguay benefits from relative stability and a rather open policy towards migrants coming from Brazil. This openness facilitates the settlement of newcomers, who seek to preserve their political convictions while benefiting from an environment more conducive to their interests. This dynamic could alter demographic and social balances in certain border regions.

A trend expected to strengthen in 2026

Paraguayan authorities anticipate a continuation, or even an amplification, of this migratory phenomenon in 2026. This forecast is based on analyses relayed by France 24, which emphasize that the approach of the Brazilian presidential elections could intensify departures of Bolsonaro supporters fearing a major political change.

This trend raises questions about the medium-term impact on Paraguay, both economically and socially. The influx of new residents can stimulate certain sectors but also generate tensions related to integration and the management of public resources. Monitoring this development will be crucial to understanding the regional repercussions of this migratory movement.

In sum, Paraguay today appears as a strategic refuge for a significant segment of the Brazilian population, mixing political and economic stakes in a regional context undergoing profound change.