On Thursday, August 13, Zambian voters are not just choosing their next president. Their vote will be scrutinized by markets, international creditors, energy transition industries, and major powers seeking to secure access to copper. In this Southern African nation long associated with a severe debt crisis, President Hakainde Hichilema is seeking a second term by highlighting the economic recovery initiated since he took office in 2021.
The polling stations are set to open from 6 AM to 6 PM, according to the Electoral Commission of Zambia. Citizens will simultaneously elect the president, members of the National Assembly, and local officials. This national event holds significance that extends far beyond its borders: Zambia possesses one of the most strategic copper industries in the world, at a time when electrical grids, electric vehicles, and data centers are accelerating global demand.
Hichilema’s Economic Record After the Debt Crisis
Hakainde Hichilema won the 2021 election after five unsuccessful attempts. His rise to power fueled hopes for a change in governance and economic recovery. Five years later, the head of state is asking voters to validate his approach: restoring trust, stabilizing the currency, containing inflation, and putting the country back on a sustainable path after its default in 2020.
Associated Press highlights that Zambia has restructured over $12 billion in debts to states and private creditors under his presidency. This undertaking has been observed well beyond Lusaka, as it has served as a test for international mechanisms meant to assist over-indebted countries. China, multilateral institutions, and bondholders have all been involved in a case that has become emblematic of the financial difficulties faced by several developing economies.
The government can therefore present macroeconomic results. However, an election is not won solely with indicators. For a segment of the population, the real question remains that of purchasing power, employment, and the speed at which the announced improvements translate into daily life. This is where the political risk for Hichilema lies: convincing that stabilization is not only visible in financial reports but also in households.
Why Copper Turns This Election into a Global Affair
Zambia is among the world’s leading copper producers. This metal is essential for cables, electrical networks, batteries, and numerous digital devices. It thus occupies a central place in the industrial competition between the United States, China, Europe, and emerging powers. Any decision regarding Zambian mines, infrastructure, or taxation can have repercussions on global investments and supply chains.
Hichilema has set a particularly ambitious goal: to increase national production to 3 million tons per year by 2031. According to AP, such a level could propel Zambia ahead of the United States and China among global producers. The promise is spectacular, but it requires massive capital, reliable energy, new rail and road capacities, as well as a sufficiently stable regulatory climate to attract mining groups without sacrificing the country’s interests.
The election thus becomes a signal to investors. A clear and accepted victory could consolidate the sector’s visibility. Conversely, prolonged contestation would slow down decisions in a market where every new project counts. For Europe, which seeks to diversify its supplies of critical minerals, as well as for Asian and American partners, Zambian political stability is now a direct economic variable.
A Reshaped Opposition in the Shadow of Edgar Lungu
The political context has been profoundly shaken by the death of former President Edgar Lungu in South Africa in June 2025. Lungu, defeated by Hichilema in 2021, remained a central figure of the opposition. His passing has opened a period of reshaping and deprived the opposing camp of its most recognizable face. AP also notes that the conflict surrounding the location of his burial has fueled a very sensitive confrontation between his family and the government for nearly a year.
Fourteen candidates, including Hichilema, have submitted their candidacies, according to Zambian authorities. This abundance illustrates pluralism, but it can also disperse the anti-presidential vote. The issue thus extends beyond whether the economic record is convincing: it also involves measuring whether a fragmented opposition can transform social discontent into a credible alternative.
Observers Monitor the Credibility of the Process
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has deployed an observation mission for the August 13 election. The European Union has also sent a mission led by Michael McNamara. Its mandate includes meetings with the electoral commission, public institutions, parties, candidates, media, and civil society.
This international presence does not presage the outcome. However, it underscores the attention given to equitable access to campaigning, the transparency of the counting process, and the handling of disputes. The EU has emphasized that the choice belongs exclusively to Zambian voters. In a country that experienced a major political shift in 2021, how the verdict is accepted will matter almost as much as the name of the winner.
The Signal That Africa and Markets Cannot Ignore
Zambia stands at the intersection of three major stories of our time: the debt of developing countries, the competition for critical minerals, and the strength of African democracies. Few elections bring these dimensions together as clearly. If Hichilema is re-elected, he will need to convert financial restructuring into visible growth and fulfill his mining promises. If voters choose another path, the next government will need to quickly reassure partners without ignoring the demand for change.
The first results should not be confused with a definitive proclamation, and the Electoral Commission has planned an official sequence for publication. Caution will therefore remain essential as the counting progresses. But one certainty already stands out: the Zambian vote has become a real-world test of a resource-rich country’s ability to transform an exit from financial crisis into shared prosperity.
